Robust, reproducible clinical patterns in hospitalised patients with COVID-19

Abstract

Abstract Severe COVID-19 is characterised by fever, cough, and dyspnoea. Symptoms affecting other organ systems have been reported. The clinical associations of different patterns of symptoms can influence diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making: for example, significant differential therapeutic effects in sub-groups of patients with different severities of respiratory failure have already been reported for the only treatment so far shown to reduce mortality in COVID-19, dexamethasone. We obtained structured clinical data on 68914 patients in the UK (the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium, 4C) and used a principled, unsupervised clustering approach to partition the first 33468 cases according to symptoms reported at recruitment. We validated our findings in a second group of 35446 cases recruited to ISARIC-4C, and in separate cohort of community cases. A core symptom set of fever, cough, and dyspnoea co-occurred with additional symptoms in three patterns: fatigue and confusion, diarrhoea and vomiting, or productive cough. Presentations with a single reported symptom of dyspnoea or confusion were common, and a subgroup of patients reported few or no symptoms. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms were more commonly female, had a longer duration of symptoms before presentation, and had lower 30-day mortality. Patients presenting with confusion, with or without core symptoms, were older and had a higher unadjusted mortality. Symptom clusters were highly consistent in replication analysis using a further 35446 individuals subsequently recruited to ISARIC-4C. Similar patterns were externally verified in 4445 patients from a study of self-reported symptoms of mild disease. The large scale of ISARIC-4C study enabled robust, granular discovery and replication of patient clusters. Clinical interpretation is necessary to determine which of these observations have practical utility. We propose that four patterns are usefully distinct from the core symptom groups: gastro-intestinal disease, productive cough, confusion, and pauci-symptomatic presentations. Importantly, each is associated with an in-hospital mortality which differs from that of patients with core symptoms. These observations deepen our understanding of COVID-19 and will influence clinical diagnosis, risk prediction, and future mechanistic and clinical studies.

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